WHERE WE ARE

The FIRST REASON why Donald Trump LOST the debate was that he lost the debate on the single most important question of the debate:

Who was the worst president in the history of our nation?

Biden made a good case for his claim that Donald Trump was the worst president that our country has ever had (see my post “TRUMP’S LIES and the LYING LIARS Who Tell Them“).

The SECOND REASON why Donald Trump LOST the debate was because he LOST the debate on an issue that Trump believes (or pretends to believe) is one of the most important issues that our country faces: IMMIGRATION. Trump LOST the debate on IMMIGRATION because:

Nearly every comment by Trump about IMMIGRATION was either a LIE or was BULLSHIT.

For details on this point, see my post “Trump CLEARLY LOST the Debate“.

The THIRD REASON why Donald Trump LOST the debate with Joe Biden, was that Trump LOST the debate on the issues that most Americans believe to be the most important issues that our country faces: issues about the health of our ECONOMY (i.e. Jobs, Taxes, Inflation, Trade, and Economic Growth). IF, as I argue, Trump LOST the debate on the issues that most Americans believe to be the most important issues that our country faces, THEN that means Trump LOST the debate in general.

In my previous post (Trump CLEARLY LOST the Debate: REASON #3) I showed that Trump LOST the debate on JOBS and on TAXES. But there are some other issues that were covered in the debate that are also relevant to the health of our ECONOMY:

• INFLATION
• TRADE
• ECONOMIC GROWTH

I will argue that Trump LOST on these other issues as well. Today, my focus is on INFLATION.

TRUMP LOST THE DEBATE ON INFLATION

It might seem absurd to some people to claim that Biden won the debate on the issue of INFLATION, but I will argue that this is the case. The basic numbers seem to favor Trump, because inflation was modest during Trump’s administration, and it increased dramatically during Biden’s administration.

However, there are some important considerations that turn the tables against Donald Trump. FIRST, Trump is to blame for much of the inflation that occurred during Biden’s administration. SECOND, inflation has been steadily decreasing for the past 22 months (nearly two years) under Biden and is now below average. THIRD, Trump’s points about INFLATION like his points about IMMIGRATION were almost all based on FALSE CLAIMS. This shows us that either Trump is IGNORANT about INFLATION or that Trump was LYING about INFLATION in order to deceive and manipulate American voters (perhaps Trump is both IGNORANT about inflation and a LIAR about inflation). FOURTH, as Biden rightly argued, another Trump presidency is likely to significantly INCREASE INFLATION. For these reasons, Trump LOST the debate on INFLATION.

TRUMP IS TO BLAME FOR INFLATION

Biden made some good points indicating that Trump bears much of the blame for the dramatic increase in INFLATION that took place after Trump left office:

We had an economy that was in freefall. The pandemic are so badly handled, many people were dying. All he said was, it’s not that serious.

The economy collapsed. There were no jobs. Unemployment rate rose to 15 percent. It was terrible.

The economy was flat on its back. 15 percent unemployment, he decimated the economy, absolutely decimated the economy. That’s why there was no inflation at the time.

…But, on inflation, he caused it by his tremendous malfeasance in the way he handled the pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html

Biden claimed that Trump did a poor job handling the COVID pandemic, and that the COVID pandemic led to problems with the economy, specifically to a high unemployment rate. Biden is correct that the COVID pandemic impacted the unemployment rate, and that unemployment reached about 15%.

The peak of unemployment occurred in April of 2020, according to CNN Fact Checkers:

The unemployment rate did near 15% during Trump’s presidency…that occurred during April 2020, when the global and national economy were crushed by the emerging Covid-19 pandemic. In April 2020, the US lost more than 20 million jobs, resulting in unemployment skyrocketing from 4.4% in March 2020 to 14.8% in April 2020.

After peaking in April 2020, the unemployment rate declined substantially as the nation recovered those lost jobs (reaching pre-pandemic levels in June 2022) and gained millions more. The nation’s jobless rate is in the midst of a 30-month streak of being at or below 4%.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/fact-checking-the-cnn-presidential-debate/index.html

Inflation during much of Trump’s administration ran between 1.5% and 2.9% year-over-year, which is below the average rate (about 3.5%). In May 2020, just after unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April of 2020, the monthly inflation rate dropped to a record low of .2%. This provides some confirmation of Biden’s claim that unemployment helped to keep inflation down. But as jobs began to be recovered and unemployment decreased, more and more people had money to spend and that, as was expected, increased inflation.

Another confirmation of the link between the unemployment rate and inflation is that inflation peaked at 9% in June of 2022, and has steadily decreased for the past two years. In December of 2021, the unemployment rate dropped down to 3.9% and has been running steadily between 3.4% and 4.0% since that time. It appears that a modest and steady unemployment rate (as opposed to a high but rapidly decreasing unemployment rate) has helped to ease inflation.

To the extent that the big spike in unemployment during Trump’s administration was due to the COVID pandemic, and the big increase in inflation during Biden’s administration was due to recovery from the COVID pandemic and to the recovery from the spike in unemployment, then the COVID pandemic was a major factor leading to major inflation.

According to Biden, Trump did a poor job of dealing with the COVID pandemic, and thus it had a much bigger impact on our economy and on unemployment than what it should have had if Trump had managed the pandemic well instead of poorly. I agree that Trump did a poor job of managing the pandemic, so Biden placing much of the blame on Trump for the big increase in inflation seems reasonable.

BIDEN’S PROVEN ABILITY TO REDUCE HIGH INFLATION

Prior to the COVID Pandemic, Trump maintained a below-average inflation rate, to his credit (although it was NOT as low as the inflation rate under Obama). Inflation did steadily increase during the first year and a half of Biden’s administration. However, because of JOB growth and achievement of a modest and steady unemployment rate (below 4% for two and a half years), Biden has been able to ease inflation.

This indicates that Biden can deal with inflation (that was caused largely by Trump). But we have no experience indicating that Trump would be able to deal with a big increase in inflation. So, if inflation were to sharply increase during a future Trump presidency, we have no idea whether Trump could manage that problem well. But we have experience that shows Biden is capable of dealing with such a problem.

TRUMP’S POINTS ON INFLATION ARE BASED ON FALSE CLAIMS

Trump LOST the debate on issues relating to IMMIGRATION simply because nearly everything he said about this subject was FALSE, indicating either that he was IGNORANT about IMMIGRATION or that he was LYING about IMMIGRATION during the debate in order to manipulate and deceive voters. The same is true on the subject of INFLATION.

Trump: “He caused this inflation. I gave him a country with … essentially no inflation. It was perfect.”

Mostly False. When Biden was inaugurated, year-over-year inflation was about 1.4%. However, that was shaped by the still-weak economy during the coronavirus pandemic, which was still a serious threat when Biden was inaugurated.

As the pandemic conditions improved, the economy accelerated. Consumers were ready to buy products, but the pandemic had prompted supply chain shortages. This, combined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which raised gasoline prices, led to inflation, peaking at 9% about a year and a half into Biden’s presidency. That was the highest in about four decades.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jun/28/2024-presidential-debate-fact-check-biden-trump/

Trump: “…he [Biden] inherited almost no inflation and it stayed that way for 14 months.”

In December of 2020, the year-over-year inflation rate was 1.4%, which is low, but it was NOT “almost no inflation”. The monthly inflation rate did drop to 0% in October of 2020 (there was no overall increase in prices between September and October of 2020). But the inflation rate increased to .2% in November of 2020, and then increased again to .4% in December of 2020. So, inflation was clearly increasing in the last three months of 2020.

Biden was not inaugurated as president until January 20, 2021, so the inflation in January was not really under his administration. Like December of 2020, the monthly inflation rate for January 2021 was .4%, it was NOT 0%.

It is also FALSE that there was “almost no inflation” for the first “14 months” of Biden’s administration. In fact, at the end of 2021, when Biden had been president for only about 11 months, the year-over-year rate of inflation was at 7.0%, which is double the average rate of inflation:

The all items index rose 7.0 percent for the 12 months ending December, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending June 1982.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01122022.htm

So, either Trump is completely IGNORANT about inflation rates in 2021 or else he was LYING during the debate in order to manipulate and deceive voters about INFLATION during Biden’s administration.

In order to make Biden look like he was doing a terrible job of dealing with INFLATION, Trump also made the following claim:

Trump: “You look at the cost of food, where it’s double, triple and quadruple.”

False. …the 21% increase in food prices on Biden’s watch is well below what Trump claimed. Quadrupling food costs would be an increase of 300%, or more than 10 times larger than what Trump said.

[…]

Also, this increase was spread over three and a half years, making the annual increase about 6%, part of which has been offset by rising wages.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jun/28/2024-presidential-debate-fact-check-biden-trump/ (emphasis added)

Food prices, specifically grocery prices, did outpace overall inflation. However, they didn’t rise to the extent that Trump claims. Annual food and grocery inflation peaked at 11.4% and 13.5% in August 2022, respectively. Through the 12 months ending in May, overall food and grocery prices were up just 2.1% and 1%, respectively.

Certain food categories saw much greater inflation: Notably, egg prices were up 70% annually in January 2023. However, the underlying cause of that sharp increase was a highly contagious, deadly avian flu. Food prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including disease, extreme weather events, global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and once-in-a-lifetime pandemics.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/fact-checking-the-cnn-presidential-debate/index.html (emphasis added)

Again, Trump is either IGNORANT about the INFLATION of food and grocery prices or else he was LYING during the debate in order to deceive and manipulate voters. Either way, Trump LOST the debate on INFLATION because nearly everything he said on this subject was FALSE.

A 2ND TRUMP PRESIDENCY WOULD PROBABLY CAUSE INFLATION TO INCREASE

Biden again made some good points against Trump on the issue of INFLATION:

But this guy is – has increased your taxes because of the deficit. Number one, he’s increased inflation because of the debacle he left after – when he handled the pandemic. And he finds himself in a position where he now wants to tax you more by putting a 10 percent tariff on everything that comes into the United States America.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html

Trump wants to put a 10% tariff on imported goods. A tariff is a TAX paid by American businesses who import goods from other countries, either to run and support their business, or to use to make a product, or to resell to American consumers. In any case, this TAX would raise the cost of doing business for American businesses and that increased cost will then be passed on to American consumers, thus increasing the prices of goods and services provided by American businesses to American consumers. Therefore, Trump’s tarrif would cause the inflation rate to increase.

Biden made a second strong point against Trump on INFLATION:

…15 Nobel laureates, economists, they all said that, if Trump is re-elected, we’re likely to have a recession, and inflation is going to increasingly go up.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html

Biden is correct on this point (except it was 16 Nobel-winning economists):

A new Wall Street Journal survey found that a majority of economists polled believe Donald Trump’s policies would be more likely to reignite inflation than President Joe Biden’s would.

Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists previously came out with a letter voicing the same concerns.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/12/economists-trump-inflation-biden-wsj.html

CONCLUSION

Although the inflation rate during Trump’s presidency was below average (below 3.5%) and there was a big increase in inflation during Biden’s presidency, Trump LOST the debate on INFLATION for these reasons:

• Trump was to blame for much of the increase in INFLATION that happened after he left office, because of his poor handling of the COVID pandemic.
• Biden has successfully managed to bring INFLATION down: the inflation rate has been decreasing steadily for about two years and is now below average.
• Nearly everything Trump said about INFLATION during the debate was FALSE, implying that either Trump is IGNORANT about INFLATION or that Trump was LYING about inflation during the debate in order to deceive and manipulate voters.
• Most economists believe that a second Trump presidency will result in an increase to the rate of inflation.

Trump LOST the debate on the issue of INFLATION.