ONE REASON why Donald Trump clearly lost the debate with Joe Biden, is that Trump lost on the single most important issue of the whole debate:

WHO WAS THE WORST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES?

Biden claimed that Trump was the worst president that we have ever had, and Biden made a strong case for this strong claim. See my previous post “Trump’s Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them” for the details on that issue.

After watching the debate, NOBODY should vote for Trump, simply because in that debate Biden showed that Trump was the worst president that our country has ever had. This one single very important point is sufficient reason by itself to conclude that Trump LOST the debate.

Today, I will give a SECOND REASON why Donald Trump CLEARLY LOST the debate with Joe Biden:

ALMOST EVERYTHING DONALD TRUMP SAID ABOUT IMMIGRATION WAS EITHER A LIE OR WAS BULLSHIT.

It is clear that Donald Trump believes (or pretends to believe) that one of the most important issues we face is problems related to IMMIGRATION. So, if Donald Trump FAILED to make a strong case for his views on IMMIGRATION and for his competence on issues relating to IMMIGRATION, then Trump LOST the debate.

Trump loves the subject of immigration because (a) he is a racist and a bigot, and (b) he believes that he can win the election by appealing to racists and bigots in the GOP and among independent voters by focusing on IMMIGRATION issues, so the very fact that IMMIGRATION is his top issue is, by itself, a good reason to conclude that Trump LOST the debate with Biden: Trump’s focus on IMMIGRATION in the debate demonstrated his racisism and bigotry on live national TV.

If there is one subject that Trump should have nailed during the debate, it is the subject of IMMIGRATION, his favorite topic. But nearly every word out of his mouth on this subject was either a LIE or was BULLSHIT.

Even if Joe Biden had said nothing of any significance about IMMIGRATION during the debate, Trump LOST the debate by demonstrating that he knows nothing about IMMIGRATION, which he takes to be the most important issue facing our country, and that he has no significant points to make on this subject that are based on facts and reality, and because he did a poor job in dealing with IMMIGRATION when he was previously the president:

• Trump LIED about the number of immigrants entering the USA.
• Trump LIED about the impact of immigration on crime in the USA.
• Trump LIED about the impact of immigration on Social Security & Medicare.
• Trump LIED about the impact of immigration on Jobs.
• Trump LIED about the impact of immigration on terrorism in the USA.
• Trump LIED about his “success” in dealing with immigration during his presidency.

(Remember THE WALL that Trump was going to build on our southern border that was going to be paid for by Mexico? He didn’t build THE WALL, and we got NO MONEY from Mexico to build a wall. However, Trump’s good friend and fellow criminal Steve Bannon was able to use interest in THE WALL to fool a number of MAGA morons into giving their money to a scam that claimed it would build THE WALL.)

Because virtually everything Trump asserted about IMMIGRATION was either a LIE or BULLSHIT, he LOST the debate on the subject of IMMIGRATION, and since this was the subject that Trump cares about most (or pretends to care about most), that makes it clear that Trump has nothing of significance to say about the issues that he cares about the most! If Trump LOST on the subject that he cares about most (or pretends to care about most), then that is a very good reason to conclude that Trump LOST the debate against Biden.

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRATIONS

Trump: Biden allowed in “18 million people.” => FALSE

Trump: “It’s not only the 18 million people that I believe is even low because they, the gotaways — they don’t even talk about gotaways.” => FALSE & FALSE & FALSE

Trump: “It could be 18, it could be 19 and even 20 million people.” => FALSE & FALSE & FALSE

“Here’s the reality: Customs and Border Protection recorded about 9.5 million “encounters” between February 2021, after Biden took office, through April. But that does not mean all those people entered the country illegally. Some people were “encountered” numerous times as they tried to enter the country — and others (more than 4 million of the total) were expelled…” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/

“Government and independent analyses have estimated that repeat offenders account for a quarter to more than half of all encounters.”

The number of people who have been allowed to enter the US by Customs officials and Border Patrol Agents is obviously WAY LESS THAN 18 MILLION people.

The fact-checker at the Washington Post estimates the actual number of immigrants under Biden’s administration to be about 5 million, which is in the ballpark with my calculations:

“CBP has released more than 3.2 million migrants into the United States at the southern border under the Biden administration through April, the Department of Homeland Security said. These numbers, however, do not include “gotaways”— which occurwhen cameras or sensors detect migrants crossing the border but no one is found or no agents are available to respond. That figure could add an additional 2 million, bringing the total number of migrants arriving during Biden’s presidency to around 5 million.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate

If a quarter to a half of the 9.5 million encounters involved repeat offenders, then there were between 2.4 million and 4.8 million encounters with repeat offenders, and there were between 7.1 million (9.5 million – 2.4 million = 7.1 million) and 4.7 million (9.5 million – 4.8 million = 4.7 million) encounters with NON repeat offenders.

Lets consider the smaller estimated number of encounters with repeat offenders first.

A repeat offender is someone who attempts to illegally enter the USA at least two times and is encountered two or more times and is expelled two or more times. A repeat offender thus generates two or three “encounters” (and a few very persistent individuals generate four or more encounters). Thus, “encounters” with repeat offenders should be divided by 2 or 3 to estimate the number of individuals involved in those “encounters”. Let’s estimate by dividing encounters with repeat offenders by 2.5 to estimate the number of individuals involved in those encounters.

Given the smaller estimate of 2.4 million encounters with repeat offenders, there would have been 7.1 million encounters with NON repeat offenders. The 2.4 million encounters with repeat offenders would constitute encounters with about 1 million individuals, and 7.1 million encounters” with NON repeat offenders would constitute encounters with 7.1 million individuals, yielding a total of encounters with about 8.1 million individuals.

Presumably, all (or nearly all) of the encounters with repeat offenders would result in the person being expelled. Thus, 2.4 million encounters with about 1 million repeat offenders would account for about 2.4 million of the 4 million encounters where the person is expelled. That leaves 1.6 million encounters with NON repeat offenders where the person is expelled (just one time), and thus 1.6 million more individuals expelled. On this scenario, 2.6 million individuals would have been expelled (1 million repeat offenders expelled + 1.6 million one-time offenders expelled = 2.6 million people expelled) as a result of 9.5 million encounters involving 8.1 million individuals. Therefore, on this scenario, about 5.5 MILLION people (NOT 18 million, NOT 19 million, NOT 20 million) would have been allowed to enter the US under the Biden Administration (8.1 million individuals encountered – 2.6 million individuals expelled = 5.5 individuals allowed to enter the US).

Now let’s consider the larger estimated number of encounters with repeat offenders.

Given the larger estimate of 4.8 million encounters with repeat offenders, there would have been 4.7 million encounters with NON repeat offenders. The 4.8 million encounters with repeat offenders would constitute encounters with about 1.9 million individuals, and the 4.7 million encounters with NON repeat offenders would constitute encounters with 4.7 million individuals, yielding a total of encounters with about 6.6 million individuals.

Presumably, all (or nearly all) of the encounters with repeat offenders would result in that person being expelled. Thus, 4.8 million encounters with about 1.9 million repeat offenders would account for nearly all of the over 4 million encounters where the person is expelled. That leaves 0 of the 4.7 million encounters with 4.7 million NON repeat offenders where the person is expelled, and thus 0 more individuals expelled. On this scenario, 1.9 million individuals would have been expelled as a result of 9.5 million encounters involving 6.6 million individuals. Therefore, on this scenario, about 4.7 MILLION people (6.6 million people encountered – 1.9 million people expelled = 4.7 million people allowed entry), NOT 18 million, NOT 19 million, NOT 20 million, would have been allowed to enter the US under the Biden Administration.

Based on the above information and calculations, the 9.5 million encounters by Customs officials and Border Patrol agents resulted in between 4.7 MILLION and 5.5 MILLION people being allowed to enter the US, NOT 18 MILLION people, NOT 19 MILLION people, and NOT 20 MILLION people!

Trump also pointed to the number of people who manage to get across the border into the US without encountering a Customs official or Border Patrol agent: the “gotaways”.

“Many other migrants have evaded capture, but the exact number is unclear. Republicans have previously cited one estimate obtained by FoxNews: about 1.6 million migrants since 2021.” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check

Given that Republicans have previously cited an estimate of about 1.6 million “gotaways”, we can reasonably assume that the actual number of “gotaways” is between 1 million and 2 million. Even if we add the larger estimated number of 2 million “gotaways” to the above larger estimated number of immigrants who are encountered and allowed to enter the US (5.5 million people), the total number of immigrants who entered the US under the Biden administration would be 7.5 million people, NOT 18 million, NOT 19 million, NOT 20 million.

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON CRIME

Trump claimed that migrants were entering the United States and killing women, saying that “these killers are coming into our country, and they are raping and killing women.”=>BULLSHIT

TRUMP, referring to Biden: “He’s the one that killed people with a bad border and flooding hundreds of thousands of people dying and also killing our citizens when they come in.” =>FALSE

“And because of his ridiculous, insane and very stupid policies, people are coming in and killing our citizens at a level we’ve never — we call it migrant crime. I’d call it Biden-migrant crime.” => FALSE

“He allowed millions of people to come in here from prisons, jails, and mental institutions — to come into our country and destroy our country.”=> FALSE

It is a common strategy of demagogues to create a boogeyman to stir up fear among the general population in order to deceive and manipulate the public. That is pretty clearly what Trump is doing on this topic.

Not only is Trump trying to use fear to deceive and manipulate the American public, but he uses RACIST fears to do so. The above comments by Trump demonstrated on live national TV that Trump is a racist and a bigot. This is, all by itself, a sufficient reason to conclude that Trump LOST the debate against Biden:

NOBODY should vote for a presidential candidate who is clearly a RACIST and a BIGOT (unless the voter WANTS to promote racism and bigotry!).

The last thing our divided country needs right now is to have a RACIST and a BIGOT as the leader of our country. We need a leader who will FIGHT AGAINST racism and bigotry, not promote it.

The first quote from Trump above is BULLSHIT, because although it is not strictly speaking false, it strongly SUGGESTS ideas that are RACIST and FALSE. Of course, SOME immigrants commit crimes, and SOME of those crimes are violent crimes. But Trump’s words, especially in the context of his other comments about immigration and crime, strongly SUGGEST that there is a serious increase in violent crime because of immigration. This idea is intended to evoke the fears of racists and bigots who believe that people with brown or black skin are naturally immoral, lazy, dishonest, and violent.

But there are at least three serious problems with the idea that there has been a serious increase in violent crime because of immigration:

1. Violent crime rates have been declining year after year for over three decades.
2. The largest spike in the murder rate ever recorded by the FBI occurred during Trump’s presidency (and a corresponding steep decline in the murder rate occurred during Biden’s presidency).
3. Many studies have shown there is no link between immigration and crime.

So, if Trump truly believes that there has been a serious increase in violent crime because of immigration, then Trump is an IDIOT. On the other hand, if Trump does NOT believe that there has been a serious increase in violent crime because of immigration, then he is clearly LYING to the American public in order to deceive and manipulate voters by using fears based on RACISM and BIGOTRY rather than on fact and reality. Either way, this is a very good reason, all by itself, to conclude that Trump LOST the debate with Biden.

Here are some fact-checker responses to the above racist and bigoted comments by Trump about Immigration and Crime:

“Preliminary statistics show that crime in the US dropped significantly in 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024, with a steep drop in murders and other violent offenses, even as the number of people crossing the southern border spiked. While some undocumented immigrants have been charged with high-profile crimes during the Biden presidency, some undocumented immigrants committed serious crimes under Trump and previous presidents as well. And research has generally found no connection between immigration levels and crime – and has sometimes found that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at lower rates than people born in the US.” https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/fact-checking-the-cnn-presidential-debate/index.html

“Trump has also argued the influx of immigrants is causing a crime surge in the U.S.,
although statistics actually show violent crime is on the way down.” “There have been recent high-profile and heinous crimes allegedly committed by people in the country illegally. But FBI statistics do not separate out crimes by the immigration status of the assailant, nor is there any evidence of a spike in crime perpetrated by migrants, either along the U.S.-Mexico border or in cities seeing the greatest influx of migrants, like New York. Studies have found that people living in the country illegally are less likely than native-born Americans to have been arrested for violent, drug and property crimes. …” “Texas is the only state that tracks crimes by immigration status. A 2020 study
published by the National Academy of Sciences found ‘considerably lower felony arrest rates’ among people in the United States illegally than legal immigrants or native-born.” https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-misinformation-election-debate-trump-biden-577507522762aa10f6ee5be3a0ced2bb

“Pants on Fire! Immigration officials arrested about 103,700 noncitizens with criminal convictions (whether in the U.S. or abroad) from fiscal years 2021 to 2024, federal data shows. That accounts for people stopped at and between ports of entry.”
“Not everyone was let in. …”
“The data reflects the people that the federal government knows about, but it’s inexhaustive. However, immigration experts said despite the data’s limitations, there is no evidence to support Trump’s statement.” https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jun/28/2024-presidential-debate-fact-check-biden-trump/

“The Trump campaign has previously cited an article published in September 2022 on Breitbart, a conservative website. One unnamed source told Breitbart that officials believed that an unspecified number of Venezuelan prison inmates were headed for the United States’ southern border with Mexico. (No other news organization or government source has verified this report.) The Trump campaign also pointed to reports warning that Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal gang founded in Venezuela, was growing in the United States.” “There is no evidence that “millions” of criminals are infiltrating the southern border. Customs and Border Protection reported apprehending 47 members of Tren de Aragua along the southern border under President Biden.” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check

“Immigration experts know of no effort by other countries to empty their prisons and mental institutions. As someone who came to prominence in the late ’70s and early ’80s, Trump appears to be channeling Cuban leader Fidel Castro’s 1980 Mariel boatlift. About 125,000 Cubans were allowed to flee to the United States in 1,700 boats — but there was a backlash when it was discovered that hundreds of refugees had been released from jails and mental health facilities.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE

Trump: “But Social Security, he’s destroying it because millions of people are pouring into our country and they are putting them onto Social Security.” => FALSE

“Mr. Trump has this backward. Undocumented workers often pay taxes that help fund Social Security. But, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office once noted, ‘most unauthorized immigrants are prohibitedfrom receiving many of the benefits that the federal government provides through Social Security and such need-based programs as food stamps, Medicaid (other than emergency services) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.’ ” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check

Trump: “He’s destroying Medicare because all of these people are coming in. They’re putting them on Medicare. They’re putting them on Social Security. They’re going to destroy Social Security. This man is going to single-handedly destroy Social Security.”=>FALSE

“Unauthorized immigrants actually improve the financial health of both Social Security and Medicare. Federal law bars them from receiving Social Security or Medicare benefits, but they pay into both programs. In a 2013 report, the Social Security Administration estimated that 3.1 million unauthorized immigrants were working and paying Social Security taxes. They contributed about $12 billion to the trust in 2010 and about $100 billion over a decade. A 2016 study estimated that unauthorized immigrants contributed about $35.1 billion to Medicare from 2000 to 2011.”

“And Mr. Biden has proposed plans to shore up Social Security and has vowed for years not to cut the program. During the 2020 campaign, Mr.Biden proposed increasing taxes on high-income earners to pay for additional Social Security benefits and reduce the program’s financial shortfall. This election cycle, Mr. Biden has also said he would raise taxes on the wealthy, make no cuts to the program and opposes raising the retirement age.” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check

“Undocumented immigrants improve the health of Social Security and Medicare by paying payroll taxes without receiving benefits.”

“In a fact check, we calculated the figure for Social Security payments made by undocumented immigrants is now about $27 billion. For Medicare, it should be at least $6 billion, as the Medicare tax is about 23 percent of the Social Security tax.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON JOBS

Trump: “The only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants.”=>FALSE

“False. Official estimates of employment do not support Mr. Trump’s statement. And estimates from various groups show that the population of unauthorized immigrants has grown in recent years, but not nearly enough to take all the jobs created under President Biden.”

“The economy has added more than 15 million jobs since January 2021. Two groups that advocate lower levels of migration and stricter border security have estimated that there are 2.3 million to 2.5 million more unauthorized immigrants in 2023 than in 2020.”

“Overall, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that 29.9 million foreign-born workers — both authorized and unauthorized — and 131.1 million native-born workers were employed in 2023. That is an increase of 5.1 million in employed foreign-born workers and 8.1 million native-born workers since 2020.” https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06/27/us/biden-trump-debate-fact-check

Trump: “The only jobs he created are for illegal immigrants and bounce back jobs that bounce back from the Covid.”=>FALSE

“This is false. Biden’s jobs record in his first three years certainly tops Trump’s performance. In the first three years of Trump’s term, about 6.5 million jobs were created — less than half the number created under Biden in the same time period. The number of jobs is now 6.2 million higher than the peak under Trump in February 2020, before the pandemic struck the economy.”

“Meanwhile, employment for the native-born population has increased by almost 6.8 million under Biden, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. (We start from February 2021, the first full month that reflects employment under Biden.)”

“Employment of foreign-born workers increased about 5 million from February 2021 through May, the bureau says. The agency says this figure includes more than just undocumented immigrants; it also includes legally admitted immigrants, including refugees, and temporary residents such as students and short-term workers.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF IMMIGRATION ON TERRORISM

Trump: “We have the largest number of terrorists coming into our country right now. All terrorists, all over the world, not just in South America, all over the world. They come from the Middle East, everywhere, all over the world. They’re pouring in. And this guy just left it open.”=>FALSE (or at least BULLSHIT)

“The number of people trying to illegally cross the southern border whose names match those on the United States’ terrorist watch list has indeed risen in recent years. Still, those numbers are a very small percentage of total Border Patrol encounters —0.0083 percent in the 2023 fiscal year between the northern and southern border …”
“The watch list includes names of known and suspected terrorists, as well as people affiliated with them; …”
“In the 2023 fiscal year, 169 noncitizens whose names appeared on the list tried to illegally cross the southern border — up from three such encounters in the 2020 fiscal year —according to Customs and Border Protection statistics.”
“So far in the 2024 fiscal year, there have been 90 instances of those encounters. (More people with names appearing on the list have presented at legal ports of entry, especially at the northern border.)”
“There is no record of a terrorist attack committed on American soil by an immigrant who crossed the southern border illegally.”

In 2023 169 noncitizens on the terrorist watchlist TRIED to illegally cross the southern border.

Presumably, we know that these 169 noncitizens were on the terrorist watchlist BECAUSE they were STOPPED while trying to illegally cross the southern border (or some may have been discovered after they illegally crossed the southern border, but were then presumably arrested or deported). So, these 169 noncitizens did NOT successfully cross the southern border (or not for long).

So far in the 2024 fiscal year, there have been 90 instances of those encounters.

In other words, in this fiscal year, there have been 90 noncitizens on the terrorist watchlist who TRIED to illegally cross the southern border to get into the USA. Again, we know that these people were on the watchlist BECAUSE they were STOPPED while attempting to cross the border illegally (or were soon discovered to have illegally entered the USA and were then arrested or deported).

Some of those people were only SUSPECTED terrorists, or were associated with a terrorist, so some of those people were probably NOT terrorists. In any case, their ATTEMPTS to illegally enter the USA failed.

What about the people on the terrorist watchlist who SUCCESSFULLY crossed the border illegally? How many of those people entered the USA in 2023 and 2024? That is obviously a very difficult question to answer!

Since Trump is clearly UNABLE to come up with any actual facts related to immigration, it is extremely unlikely that he has the intelligence and the information that would be necessary to answer this very difficult question. So, Trump’s comment is clearly BULLSHIT, at the very least.

Furthermore, since “There is no record of a terrorist attack committed on American soil by an immigrant who crossed the southern border illegally,” the number of actual terrorists who have entered the USA illegally through the southern border is probably a very small number, and thus Trump’s comment is very probably FALSE.

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TRUMP LIED ABOUT HIS “SUCCESS” WITH IMMIGRATION DURING HIS PRESIDENCY

Trump: “We had the safest border in the history of our country.” =>FALSE

“Illegal immigration during Trump’s administration was higher than under both of former President Barack Obama’s terms.” https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/jun/28/2024-presidential-debate-fact-check-biden-trump/

Trump: “We had the safest border in history in that final couple of months of my presidency.” =>FALSE

“Apprehensions in Trump’s final two months in office were much higher than in President Barack Obama’s last two months in office.”

“Apprehensions were 43,251 in December 2016 and 31,576 in January 2017, the last two months of the Obama presidency, compared with 71,141 and 75,316 in Trump’s last two months. The highest number of apprehensions under Obama was 67,342, in March 2009.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/28/fact-check-presidential-debate/

CONCLUSION: A Summary of My Argument

1. Trump believes (or pretends to believe) that immigration is one of the most important issues that our country faces.

THEREFORE:

2. IF Trump lost the debate on the issues about immigration, THEN Trump lost the debate (in general) against Biden.

3. Trump lost the debate on the issues about immigration (because nearly every comment Trump made on this subject was either a lie or was bullshit).

THEREFORE:

4. Trump lost the debate (in general) against Biden.