During the presidential debate between Trump and Harris, Donald Trump made a comment about crime in the United States:

…all over the world crime is down. All over the world except here. Crime here is up and through the roof. … Crime in this country is through the roof.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542 (Viewed 10-11-24)

In my Part 1 post on this subject, I showed that Trump was implying the following claim:

The rate of VIOLENT crime has drastically increased under the Biden administration AS COMPARED TO the rate of VIOLENT crime under the Trump administration.

I also showed that this was a BIG FAT LIE by Donald Trump, despite the protestations of the legal scholar Jonathan Turley in his editorial in The Hill.

Because the crime rate data both from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program and from the National Crime Victimization Surveys conducted by the DOJ clearly indicate that the above claim by Trump was a BIG FAT LIE, I strongly suspect that Turley understands this to be so, and thus it appears that was intentionally trying to deceive people into believing Trump’s BIG FAT LIE. It appears to me that Turley has decided to join the sad little club of Lawyers Opting to Lie for Trump.

Although I have previously shown that the above claim by Trump is a BIG FAT LIE (see my Part 1 post ) , I did not address the specific evidence that Turley put forward in support of Trump’s BIG FAT LIE. So, that is what I plan to do in this Part 2 post.

Here are the specific points that Turley makes in support of Trump’s BIG FAT LIE:

But the actual statistics show that Trump was right. The Justice Department’s released survey found that, under the Biden administration, there has been a significant increase in crime. Violent crime was up 37 percent from 2020 to 2023, rape is up 42 percent, robbery is up 63 percent and stranger violence is up 61 percent. Other reports had shown startling increases such as a doubling of carjackings in D.C. in 2023.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4879842-false-claims-harris-trump-debate/
viewed 10/26/24

The data provided by Turley stinks of the foul odor of CHERRY PICKING. It is clear from the above statements that either Turley is an IDIOT or else he is hoping that the readers of his very deceptive editorial are IDIOTS, so they won’t notice that he is trying to fool them into believing Trump’s bullshit.

According to the website of the George Washington University, Jonathan Turley is:

…a nationally recognized legal scholar who has written extensively in areas ranging from constitutional law to legal theory to tort law.

My assumption is that a nationally recognized legal scholar has the intellectual ability to read and understand basic crime statistics, and that such a person would also be very familiar with the common logical fallacy of CHERRY PICKING evidence. An intelligent high-school student can understand and recognize when someone makes an argument based on the logical fallacy of CHERRY PICKING evidence.

So, it is very likely that Turley was aware that he was Cherry Picking evidence in his editorial, but just didn’t care, because it was his intention to fool or deceive the readers of his editorial. If Turley really has no clue about the logical fallacy of Cherry Picking evidence, then he should burn his law degree, burn his bachelor’s degree, go back to college as an undergraduate, and take a basic course in Critical Thinking.

Definition

Cherry picking is when we look only for confirming evidence for our ideas. We ignore, suppress, do not see, or do not test for disconfirming evidence for our ideas.

[…]

Cherry Picking is also known as the seeking only to confirm fallacy or the fallacy of incomplete evidence, and it is similar to confirmation bias.

(from: “7. Cherry Picking” at Lucid Philosophy)

The most obvious and striking example of Cherry Picking in the above paragraph by Turley, is this statement:

Other reports had shown startling increases such as a doubling of carjackings in D.C. in 2023.

Turley is referring to evidence about ONE specific sort of violent crime significantly increasing in ONE specific area in the US, in ONE specific year. Let’s assume that this claim by Turley is a fact. This fact is of virtually no significance because it is a highly selective bit of information.

There are four years of crime data for Trump’s administration and three years of crime data for Biden’s administration, so it is IDIOTIC to look at only one specific year. There are many different sorts of violent crimes, so it is IDIOTIC to look at only one or two specific sorts of violent crimes to make a comparison between Trump’s administration and Biden’s administration. There are 50 states and over 3,000 counties in the USA, so it is IDIOTIC to focus on a change in violent crime rates in just one state or one county.

I, or anyone else, can look for and find ONE specific sort of violent crime that significantly increased in ONE specific area in the US, in ONE specific year under Donald Trump, just like Turley looked for and found his very specific example of such an increase in violent crime. If Turley thinks that no such embarrassing facts exist about the time that Trump was in office, then Turley is ignorant and clueless.

Here is another example of Turley engaging in Cherry Picking the crime data:

…from 2020 to 2023… rape is up 42 percent, robbery is up 63 percent…

There are at least three different aspects of this claim that make it a clear example of CHERRY PICKING.

CHERRY PICKING BY THE SELECTION OF THE SOURCE OF VIOLENT CRIME DATA

First, Turley is using NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) data, and ignoring the FBI UCR (Uniform Crime Reporting) data. Turley does not even bother to mention that there are two different major sources of data on violent crime rates. But if one takes a look at the FBI UCR data, it is contrary to the claims Turley makes about rape and robbery:

(from page 23 of UCR Summary of Crime in the Nation, 2023)

The rape rate DECREASED from 40.3 in 2020 to 38.0 in 2023.

The robbery rate DECREASED from 73.4 in 2020 to 66.5 in 2023.

Turley doesn’t mention this FBI UCR data, because it is contrary to the claim he wants to make. That is an example of Cherry Picking from the available evidence.

CHERRY PICKING BY THE SELECTION OF THE YEARS OF COMPARISON

Furthermore, as mentioned previously, Turley is selecting the years for comparison, but there are four years of crime data for Trump’s administration and three years of crime data for Biden’s administration, so there are twenty-one different possible comparisons that one could make, but Turley only selects and mentions ONE such comparison:

• 2017 to 2018
• 2017 to 2019
• 2017 to 2020
• 2017 to 2021
• 2017 to 2022
• 2017 to 2023
• 2018 to 2019
• 2018 to 2020
• 2018 to 2021
• 2018 to 2022
• 2018 to 2023
• 2019 to 2020
• 2019 to 2021
• 2019 to 2022
• 2019 to 2023
• 2020 to 2021
• 2020 to 2022
• 2020 to 2023
• 2021 to 2022
• 2021 to 2023
• 2022 to 2023

It is very likely that some of the other specific comparisons of crime rates selected from this list would NOT support Turley’s point or Trump’s BIG FAT LIE. His choice to compare 2020 crime rates to 2023 crime rates is an example of Cherry Picking.

CHERRY PICKING BY THE SELECTION OF THE TYPES OF VIOLENT CRIME DISCUSSED

Finally, Turley has selected some specific sorts of violent crimes to focus on, namely rape and robbery. But these are not the only sorts of violent crimes that occur. What about, for example, murder? Did the murder rate increase significantly between 2020 and 2023? NOPE! In fact, there was a significant DECREASE in the murder rate between 2020 (when Trump was president) and 2023 (when Biden was president):

• Murder Rate in 2020 under Trump: 6.8 murders per 100,000 population
• Murder Rate in 2023 under Biden: 5.7 murders per 100,000 population

That is a 16% DECREASE in the murder rate between 2020 and 2023.

Turley doesn’t bother to mention this fact. Why not? Because this fact runs contrary to the BIG FAT LIE that Trump and Turley want to fool people into believing!

Trump is constantly crying “Wolf!” about murder in the US, but the murder rate in 2020, under Trump’s administration, was the highest the murder rate has been in the past 25 years! Turley is silent on this point and instead, he focuses on rape and robbery. This is a clear example of Cherry Picking the evidence.

CONCLUSION

Either Jonathan Turley is dumber than a sack of hammers (i.e. doesn’t understand basic crime statistics and doesn’t understand the logical fallacy of Cherry Picking), or else he was deliberately deceiving readers when he wrote his very deceptive editorial supporting Trump’s BIG FAT LIE about violent crime in the USA. Because Turley is “a nationally recognized legal scholar”, I’m leaning towards the second alternative.